“Mortgage rates falling more than 1% since October’s peak is major news for a high-demand real estate market like Miami,” MIAMI Chairman of the Board Ines Hegedus Garcia said. “We should begin to see the impact in sales numbers in early 2024. Low inventory in key price points has impacted home sales, but we are beginning to see that change. New listings have risen for three consecutive months.”
Southeast Florida Home Sales Forecasted to Expand by 7% Year-over-Year by End of 2024
MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton forecasts mortgage rates to fall to 5.25% by the end of 2024 given the overall effect of the Fed’s planned cumulative rate cut of 0.75% and cooling inflation. Mortgage rates hit a 23-year high of 7.8% in October 2023, impacting November 2023 sales numbers across the nation.
“Southeast Florida’s home sales could expand by about 7% year-over-year by the end of 2024 while prices will continue to appreciate at a modest pace of 5%,” Cororaton said. “In the low to mid-price segment of the market, the lower mortgage rates will drive up demand from first-time buyers and renter households. In the high-price and luxury segment, the wealth effect from rising stock prices, a pickup in economic growth in 2024, and sustained migration of high-income households into Southeast Florida will push up demand.”
Total Miami-Dade sales decreased 7.8% in November 2023, from 1,791 to 1,651, due to elevated mortgage rates and low inventory in key price points. November home transactions came to terms in October, which saw rates peak at 7.8%. The statistics don’t include South Florida’s robust developer new construction market and volume.
Miami single-family home sales decreased 1.5% year-over-year, from 718 in November 2022 to 707 in November 2023. Miami single-family home sales, which saw an increase in transactions in September 2023, still has a lack of inventory in key price points as elevated mortgage rates have impacted buyers looking to finance.
Miami existing condo sales decreased 12% year-over-year, from 1,073 in November 2022 to 944 in November 2023. The condo market has been more impacted by lack of inventory at key price points and elevated mortgage rates.
Total Miami New Listings Increase for Third Consecutive Month
Miami new listings increased 7.7% year-over-year in November 2023, from 2,982 to 3,211. The Miami-Dade market remains in a seller’s market but the fresh supply of listings will give buyers more options.
Miami single-family homes new listings increased 0.97% while Miami condo new listings jumped 11.93% year-over-year.
Mortgage Rates at Near Lowest Levels Since May 2023
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95% as of December 14, falling below 7% for the first time since August 10. That’s down from 7.03% the previous week but up from 6.31% one year ago.
Another leading indicator for sales are showing appointments. South Florida showing appointments declined 1% year-over-year in November 2023 to 157,242 appointments. South Florida showing appointments increased five consecutive months year-over-year before October 2023.
Miami-Dade Inventory is Still Down 42.9% From Historical Average
Total inventory is down 42.9% from the historical average for Miami. The monthly historical average for Miami-Dade existing inventory is 20,302 and current inventory is at 11,576.
Total active listings at the end of November increased 3.6% year-over-year, from 11,178 to 11,576.
Inventory of single-family homes decreased 10.1% year-over-year in November 2023 from 4,288 active listings last year to 3,856 last month. Condominium inventory increased 12% year-over-year from 6,890 to 7,720 listings during the same period in 2022.
Months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes is 4.4 months, which indicates a seller’s market. Inventory for existing condominiums is 6.8 months, which indicates a balanced market. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six- and nine-months supply.
Nationally, total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.13 million units, down 1.7% from October but up 0.9% from one year ago (1.12 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.6 months in October but up from 3.3 months in November 2022.
Miami Real Estate Hits 12 Years of Consecutive Home Price Appreciation
Miami-Dade County single-family home median prices increased 11.8% year-over-year in November 2023, increasing from $550,000 to $615,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 144 consecutive months (12 years), the longest running-streak on record. Existing condo median prices increased 6.3% year-over-year from $395,000 to $420,000. Condo median prices have stayed even or increased in 144 of the last 150 months.
Miami is tied for No. 3 in the U.S. for annual home price appreciation, according to the latest US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index.
South Florida’s Incredible Wealth Migration
Local home prices have risen with South Florida’s wealth migration. In-migration boosted South Florida household income by $16 Billion in 2021, according to MIAMI REALTORS® analysis of the 2020-2021 migration data released by the Internal Revenue Service.
New households moving into Miami-Dade in 2021 had an average adjusted gross income of $229,300. New households moving into Broward County had an average adjusted gross income of $102,600. New households moving into Palm Beach County had an average adjusted gross income of $242,200.
Miami Real Estate Posts $201 Million Local Economic Impact in November 2023
Every time a home is sold it impacts the economy: income generated from real estate industries (commissions, fees and moving expenses), expenditures related to home purchase (furniture and remodeling expenses), multiplier of housing related expenditures (income earned as a result of a home sale is re-circulated into the economy) and new construction (additional home sales induce added home production).
The total economic impact of a typical Florida home sale is $122,000, according to NAR. Miami-Dade sold 1,651 homes in November 2023 for a local economic impact of $201 million.
Miami total dollar volume totaled $1.33 billion in November 2023. Single-family home dollar volume increased 8.8% year-over-year to $698 million. Condo dollar volume decreased 9.7% year-over-year to $637 million.
Miami Distressed Sales Remain Low, Reflecting Healthy Market
Only 0.9% of all closed residential sales in Miami were distressed last month, including REO (bank-owned properties) and short sales, lower than 1.6% in November 2022. In 2009, distressed sales comprised 70% of Miami sales.
Short sales and REOs accounted for 0% and 0.9% year-over-year, respectively, of total Miami sales in November 2023.
Miami’s percentage of distressed sales are lower than the national figure. Nationally, distressed sales represented 1% of sales in November 2023, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.
Miami Median Price Appreciation Outperforming Nation, State
In Florida, closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 17,722 in November 2023, up 4.2% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,108, up 0.3%. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
Nationally, total existing-home sales transactions elevated 0.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million in November. Year-over-year, sales fell 7.3% (down from 4.12 million in November 2022).
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $413,000, up 3.3% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $321,990, up 3.9% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Nationally, the median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $387,600, an increase of 4.0% from November 2022 ($372,700). All four U.S. regions posted price increases.
Miami Real Estate Attracting Near List Price
The median percent of original list price received for single-family homes was 97% in November 2023. The median percent of original list price received for existing condominiums was 96%.
The median number of days between listing and contract dates for Miami single-family home sales was 23 days, down from 31 days last year. The median time to sale for single-family homes was 64 days, down from 74 days last year.
The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for condos was 32 days, up from 35 days. The median number of days to sale for condos was 72 days, up from 74 days.
Miami Cash Sales 51.5% More than National Figure
Cash sales represented 40.9% of Miami closed sales in November 2023, compared to 42.3% in November 2022. About 27% of U.S. home sales are made in cash, according to the latest NAR statistics.
Cash buyers are not deterred by rising rates. The high percentage of cash buyers reflects Miami’s top position as the preeminent American real estate market for foreign buyers, who tend to purchase with all cash as well as some moving from more expensive U.S. markets who can buy more with their profits from real estate sales.
Cash sales accounted for 50.2% of all Miami existing condo sales and 28.4% of single-family transactions.
To access November 2023 Miami-Dade Statistical Reports, visit http://www.SFMarketIntel.com
Note: Statistics in this news release may vary depending on reporting dates. MIAMI reports exact statistics directly from its MLS system.
About the MIAMI Association of Realtors®
The MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) was chartered by the National Association of Realtors in 1920 and is celebrating 103 years of service to Realtors, the buying and selling public, and the communities in South Florida. Comprised of six organizations: MIAMI RESIDENTIAL, MIAMI COMMERCIAL; BROWARD–MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors; JTHS-MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors in the Jupiter–Tequesta–Hobe Sound area; MIAMI YPN, our Young Professionals Network Council; and the award-winning MIAMI Global Council. MIAMI REALTORS represents nearly 60,000 total real estate professionals in all aspects of real estate sales, marketing, and brokerage. It is the largest local Realtor association in the U.S. and has official partnerships with 260 international organizations worldwide. MIAMI’s official website is http://www.MiamiRealtors.com
Media Contact
Chris Umpierre, MIAMI Association of REALTORS, 3054687047, [email protected], http://www.MiamiRealtors.com
SOURCE MIAMI Association of REALTORS
